Love John Hollinger, my favorite basketball writer. Actually attempts to address analysis in a logical, ordered fashion, and is a clever writer. We'll turn this post over to him - I agree very much with virtually everything he said, and I agree this looks like an mid to upper 30s team for wins. Top heavy, not enough players overall. Here we go:
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Hollinger's Team Forecast: Miami Heat
By John HollingerESPN.com(Archive)
2007-08 Recap There have been worse teams than the 2007-08 Miami Heat, but I don't think any of them had three likely Hall of Famers in the lineup and were two years removed from a championship. Miami's crash to a 15-67 disaster was notable mostly for the sheer speed of it: Even a year earlier the Heat were a playoff team, but faster than you can say "AIG" they were in total collapse, getting hammered every night.
The Hall of Famers were a big reason. Dwyane Wade came back from offseason knee and shoulder surgery, but it was clear from the get-go that he wasn't operating at full strength. He spent most of his time on defense gambling for steals and avoiding contact, while offensively he seemed notably less explosive than a year earlier. Wade's final PER of 21.63 was a far cry from his league-leading 29.04 of a year earlier, and as he again checked out at midseason, there have to be serious concerns about his durability going forward.
Alonzo Mourning, for his part, went out early in the season with a torn patella tendon that could prove to be career-ending; if he comes back, it will be at midseason at the earliest.
At least those two were trying. Shaquille O'Neal blatantly loafed through the early part of the schedule, especially at the defensive end, while the Heat looked on in horror at the three years and $60 million remaining on his contract. So lame was his effort that Miami defended far better after he was gone, improving from 25th to 20th in defensive efficiency after the All-Star break even though Wade sat out and they were playing mostly D-Leaguers.
Those weren't the only two problems, though. Miami mortgaged its future to win the title in 2006, and the bill came due last season. Older players like Jason Williams and Mourning broke down, while veteran Band-Aids such as Ricky Davis, Mark Blount and (gasp) Penny Hardaway couldn't stop the bleeding. Without any young talent in the pipeline, the Heat had nowhere to turn and were forced to dole out heavy minutes to replacement-level talents like Chris Quinn and Earl Barron.
The result was about as un-Riley a Pat Riley team as you'll see. The Heat were 25th in defensive efficiency and continually botched the types of little things you'd never see them screw up before, especially late in games. More generally, they just seemed worn out -- the combination of age and two-plus years of seemingly being ground down by Riley.
In the end, it added up to a 15-67 disaster. I could regale you with all the stories of exactly how bad they were in each individual category, but it's too depressing. Moreover, it's not pertinent -- this coming season's Heat are going to look very different from last year's edition.
The reason that will be the case stems from two very fortunate events that happened in the second half of the season.
First, Miami found a sucker to take on O'Neal's contract. The Heat traded Shaq to Phoenix for Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks; amazingly, they didn't have to include a draft pick, a young player or anything else in order to complete the deal, and in Marion they got the best player in the trade.
From Miami's perspective, Phoenix's sudden interest in Shaq was akin to having a $40 million bag of money land on the sidewalk in front of your house. Suddenly, the Heat were out from the obligation to pay Shaq and could look forward to major cap space in 2009, and in the meantime they had a star in Marion and a potential solution at point guard in Banks.
Second, the Heat were so bad so early that they quickly fell out of the playoff race and began concentrating on tanking … er, on developing their younger players for next season. Wade shut his season down after 51 games, while Marion and Udonis Haslem sat out with injuries that, well … let's just say they would have been more gung ho about playing if they were in a playoff race. Their absence helped Miami lose enough to secure the second overall pick in the draft and take Michael Beasley.
Nonetheless, this team is clearly in a rebuilding mode, and that was borne out after the season when Riley stepped down -- perhaps for the last time -- and handed the reins over to assistant Erik Spoelstra. A highly regarded assistant, Spoelstra will have to contend with Riley's shadow looming over him from the front office and the threat of Riley's returning if the team becomes a contender, much as Stan Van Gundy did before him. But the 62-year-old Riley took time off in each of the past three seasons, so one suspects he might be ready to step down for good.
Biggest Strength: Speed The Heat may have the fastest perimeter trio I've ever seen. Banks may not be anybody's idea of a true point guard, but he is one of the speediest players in basketball and can push it upcourt with anyone. (He'll follow that burst with a horrible decision, but we're setting that aside for now.) Wade, of course, is a blur at both ends when he's healthy, constantly creating breakouts with his running ability and penchant for steals. And then there's Marion, one of the best transition finishers of his generation and an especially speedy threat when he slides up to power forward and consistently beats his man down the floor.
It gets interesting in that Miami's other players don't seem to have the jets to keep up. With the exception of Wright and Beasley, pretty much everyone else on Miami's roster is a pure half-court player who doesn't seek out transition opportunities. So when Wade and Marion break out, players like Quinn, Jones, Haslem and Blount will have to keep up or risk being left behind.
Biggest Weakness: Interior defenseA strength of the Heat throughout the ages, the team's ability to defend the paint appears to suddenly be a major question mark. With Mourning and O'Neal no longer around to anchor the defense, the only true centers on the roster are Blount and Magloire -- and at this point in their respective careers, each is little more than a third center. Project Joel Anthony seems nowhere close to being ready, and while there are rumors of a midseason comeback by Mourning, it remains to be seen both how much he has left and how long it would take him to get up to speed.
That leaves Haslem as the team's likely starting center, and while he's a hard-nosed defender, he's also 6-foot-8 and doesn't block shots. Joining him up front is Beasley, a prodigious talent but one whose defense looms as a major question mark. The only other bigs on the roster are "small-ball" power forwards Jones and Wright, who are more posing as frontcourt players for matchup purposes rather than players who are really capable of defending the position.
As a result, look for Miami to do a lot more doubling and scrambling against the post than they've done in past years, especially when going up against the likes of Yao Ming, Dwight Howard, or, dare we say it, Shaq.
Outlook The Heat are perhaps the league's hardest team to predict this year. Make one set of fairly rosy assumptions -- a healthy Wade playing at an MVP level, joined by an active Beasley scoring right out of the gate -- and this team looks like a division champion. Make another, more pessimistic set -- Wade continuing to struggle with injuries, and Beasley needing a year of adjustment -- and they're a 50-loss team.
So I'll do the only thing I can and split the difference. I modeled the Heat as getting about 30 minutes a game from Wade -- including time off for injuries -- with a PER of 26. That was way higher than his projection, but the projections didn't know that Wade was limping through last season, nor did they watch Wade dominating in the Olympics.
As for Beasley, I gave him a rookie PER of 16.5 -- about what Kevin Durant did a year ago -- in 33 minutes a night. I can't really model him playing much more than that given the propensity of young bigs to foul.
That makes for a nice nucleus with Wade and Marion, but then the question marks come in earnest. Point guard and center are going to be major liabilities, the bench only has one proven player in Jones, and the rookie coach Spoelstra will be cutting his teeth as well. Additionally, there's a chance the team trades Marion at midseason for future help, which would obviously diminish their second-half results.
While the possibilities for this team are all over the map, I get to pick only one outcome. And the median of those possibilities seems to be that they'll hang in the playoff race all season, and might not know their postseason fate until the final game.
Prediction: 39-43, 3rd in Southeast Division, T-9th in Eastern Conference
One more Hollinger gem:
• Let Earl Barron go, signed Jamaal Magloire. Nothing makes you realize a guy is a poor man's Mark Blount like having the real Mark Blount, and the Heat's three-year project with Barron ended thusly.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
I thought this was worth posting on the main board. The Captain is obviously very passionate about this topic. Let's try to clean up the language, though, Cap'n...:
Anonymous said...
The Captain here.In response to both of your comments about Tim Wakefield and his pitching technique, I couldn't agree with you less."Crafty" pitchers have been in baseball since Abner Doubleday was in knickers. What ever it takes to get batters out, and he's had reasonable success in his career doing just that, is what all pitchers do. If CC Sabathia throws two 95 mph fastballs and then floats a 78mph curveball, is he not deceiving the hitter? Is he less of a man? When pitchers like Glavine, Maddox and Moyer, with a combined history of about 70 years "nibble" at the corners, are they pussies? If Jose Reyes gets a bunt base hit, is he the feminine counterpart of Carlos Delgato. I think not. Josh Beckett goes to battle with a broadsword and Wakefield fights his battle with a butterknife. Who is the braver man?
Anonymous said...
The Captain here.In response to both of your comments about Tim Wakefield and his pitching technique, I couldn't agree with you less."Crafty" pitchers have been in baseball since Abner Doubleday was in knickers. What ever it takes to get batters out, and he's had reasonable success in his career doing just that, is what all pitchers do. If CC Sabathia throws two 95 mph fastballs and then floats a 78mph curveball, is he not deceiving the hitter? Is he less of a man? When pitchers like Glavine, Maddox and Moyer, with a combined history of about 70 years "nibble" at the corners, are they pussies? If Jose Reyes gets a bunt base hit, is he the feminine counterpart of Carlos Delgato. I think not. Josh Beckett goes to battle with a broadsword and Wakefield fights his battle with a butterknife. Who is the braver man?
Monday, September 29, 2008
Emcee
Let's be honest: we Heat fans think Mario Chalmers is going to be good because he has a cool name.
In financial news:
The staff and I here at Dos Minutos want to emphasize that the current economic crisis should not in any way affect our day-to-day operations. Also, we would want to caution - Cuidado! - our readers about overreaction to the grim financial landscape. We at Dos Minutos believe that this will all blow over.
To wit: in 2006 I wrote a 25 page paper about a banking crisis in Florida in the 1830s wherein two moneyed groups of white landowners argued about the appropriate amount of legislative oversight needed for the state chartered Union Bank of Florida. At the time, the territory (Florida was not yet a state) had guaranteed the Union Bank's loans in order to encourage consumer confidence and stimulate investment. All this took place in the shadow of Andrew Jackson's somewhat disingenuous war on the United States' National Bank and its director Nelson Biddle, and it was a scenario that played out all over the country, in various states and territories.
In Florida, believing that this government backing of the Union Bank was an unnecessary risk for the territory's future financial prospects, a group of rich, white territorial representatives convened a convention to try to repeal this law. While their argument may or may not have been financially sound, it merits mention that though they were rich, this group was comprised of political outsiders who were not benefitting financially from the bank's growth. The staunchest defenders of the territory's guarantee clearly were - they were composed in large part of the bank's directors and customers.
Though the initial argument on the convention floor to divorce the territory from the bank failed, the losing faction learned to take the argument out to the people, focusing more on anti-government rhetoric and less on factual evidence than they did on the convention floor. Eventually, they swayed public opinion enough to overturn the agreement. It is instructive, thusly, to note that today's argument over regulation/deregulation is certainly not a new one - here is a similar situation nearly two hundred years ago. Also interesting to note - leading that anti-bank faction two hundred years ago: John McCain. Just kidding - we are apolitical here at Dos Minutos.
In financial news:
The staff and I here at Dos Minutos want to emphasize that the current economic crisis should not in any way affect our day-to-day operations. Also, we would want to caution - Cuidado! - our readers about overreaction to the grim financial landscape. We at Dos Minutos believe that this will all blow over.
To wit: in 2006 I wrote a 25 page paper about a banking crisis in Florida in the 1830s wherein two moneyed groups of white landowners argued about the appropriate amount of legislative oversight needed for the state chartered Union Bank of Florida. At the time, the territory (Florida was not yet a state) had guaranteed the Union Bank's loans in order to encourage consumer confidence and stimulate investment. All this took place in the shadow of Andrew Jackson's somewhat disingenuous war on the United States' National Bank and its director Nelson Biddle, and it was a scenario that played out all over the country, in various states and territories.
In Florida, believing that this government backing of the Union Bank was an unnecessary risk for the territory's future financial prospects, a group of rich, white territorial representatives convened a convention to try to repeal this law. While their argument may or may not have been financially sound, it merits mention that though they were rich, this group was comprised of political outsiders who were not benefitting financially from the bank's growth. The staunchest defenders of the territory's guarantee clearly were - they were composed in large part of the bank's directors and customers.
Though the initial argument on the convention floor to divorce the territory from the bank failed, the losing faction learned to take the argument out to the people, focusing more on anti-government rhetoric and less on factual evidence than they did on the convention floor. Eventually, they swayed public opinion enough to overturn the agreement. It is instructive, thusly, to note that today's argument over regulation/deregulation is certainly not a new one - here is a similar situation nearly two hundred years ago. Also interesting to note - leading that anti-bank faction two hundred years ago: John McCain. Just kidding - we are apolitical here at Dos Minutos.
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Preseason Dreams
Every year at this time, I start combing the NBA unemployed list for veterans who can help Miami. Last year it was Ruben Patterson. I wore out Momma with pleas for Miami to sign Ruben Patterson. He is strong, he is aggressive, and he lowers his head and goes in a straight line to the rim. He had averaged 15 and 5 in 31 minutes a game the previous year in Milwaukee (54% from the floor!). Plus, we had no small forward as evidenced by D. Wright's starting stint. As usual, my pleas went unheeded. The Clippers signed him late. He only played 20 games, averging 5 points in 16 mimutes per...Sometimes The Team knows better.
This year, however, I suspect they don't. Jamal Magloire is in town. He was in this position last year, coming off a bad stretch, signing a one year deal with a bad team (in New Jersey) to revive the career. The Plumber, of course, touted his arrival. As per usual, I watched much Net action to help the Plumber temper expectations. Magloire was dreadful. He was beyond dreadful. On a bad team with a thin frontcourt he couldn't even get on the court - when he did he was awful, shooting 30% from the floor and 45% from the line. Plumber kept blaming Coach Lawrence Frank for not getting him regular minutes, but that was Plumber-talk. There was no way to justify keeping him on the court. He kept catching the ball just inside the elbow, turning, and firing line drives off the backboard with no rim. Plumber championed his ability to lay the wood on the other end, but he couldn't get near enough anyone to do so.
Magloire is talking the talk coming in to camp, as is Spoelstra. Ira reports this from the first day of Heat practice:
"The staff spent extra time with Jamaal Magloire working on agility and strength drills in the post. The Heat's smallest offseason signing could prove to be one of the most significant. Erik Spoelstra said Magloire was mowing down teammates during the high-energy session."
I think the "mowing down" comment was meant as a positive...I mean, he is big. And I want to believe. But realistically, his last good season was 2003-04, and his only two good seasons were that year, and the one preceding it. So it probably isn't going to happen. Though, considering the options up front, I am game to try.
In other news:
As we head in to October, it warrants mention that the Red Sox are in the playoffs again. However, it looks as if this year that Tim Wakefield will be relagated to the bullpen for the postseason. This is a blessing. The knuckleball is an abomination, an absolute transmogrification of the art of pitching. Tim Wakefield, are you a man or a mouse? Butch up, throw a fastball, and accept what comes, like a man.
This year, however, I suspect they don't. Jamal Magloire is in town. He was in this position last year, coming off a bad stretch, signing a one year deal with a bad team (in New Jersey) to revive the career. The Plumber, of course, touted his arrival. As per usual, I watched much Net action to help the Plumber temper expectations. Magloire was dreadful. He was beyond dreadful. On a bad team with a thin frontcourt he couldn't even get on the court - when he did he was awful, shooting 30% from the floor and 45% from the line. Plumber kept blaming Coach Lawrence Frank for not getting him regular minutes, but that was Plumber-talk. There was no way to justify keeping him on the court. He kept catching the ball just inside the elbow, turning, and firing line drives off the backboard with no rim. Plumber championed his ability to lay the wood on the other end, but he couldn't get near enough anyone to do so.
Magloire is talking the talk coming in to camp, as is Spoelstra. Ira reports this from the first day of Heat practice:
"The staff spent extra time with Jamaal Magloire working on agility and strength drills in the post. The Heat's smallest offseason signing could prove to be one of the most significant. Erik Spoelstra said Magloire was mowing down teammates during the high-energy session."
I think the "mowing down" comment was meant as a positive...I mean, he is big. And I want to believe. But realistically, his last good season was 2003-04, and his only two good seasons were that year, and the one preceding it. So it probably isn't going to happen. Though, considering the options up front, I am game to try.
In other news:
As we head in to October, it warrants mention that the Red Sox are in the playoffs again. However, it looks as if this year that Tim Wakefield will be relagated to the bullpen for the postseason. This is a blessing. The knuckleball is an abomination, an absolute transmogrification of the art of pitching. Tim Wakefield, are you a man or a mouse? Butch up, throw a fastball, and accept what comes, like a man.
Friday, September 26, 2008
Ball Acquisition
The ends of NBA games are all about "ball acquisition." On the defensive end, can you get the ball back, by any means necessary? On the other end, if you miss, can you get it back for one more heave at the rim? And, who has the will to get to the 50-50 bouncing ball with less than a minute to go?
Amongst the best ball acquisition guys in the NBA are Jason Kidd (his strongest remaining skill - aggressive as hell to any loose ball), Tim Duncan (the master of the nudge in the back, followed by the offensive putback), Anderson Varejo (a late terror on the offensive boards), and James Posey (like a 6'8" praying mantis, all deflections and rebounds in the waning moments). It is the reason Posey finished games for two NBA champions. I think Chris Paul and Dwyane Wade also deserve mention as superstars whose athletic ability and rapid thought processes serve them well in this area of the game.
The classic ball acquisition play: when down two with seconds to play Kobe Bryant threw Steve Nash to the floor on an inbounds pass in a 2006 playoff game, pinned him on his back, ripped the ball from his hands, and went down and tied the game at the buzzer. No call, overtime.
The defining principle of ball acquisition in the waning moments of a game is: get the ball first, and then worry about the referees later. Each of the guys on this list push, pull, kick, grab jerseys, trip, etc, to get the ball. If the referee calls a foul so be it - if you didn't push and the other team gets the ball, what's the difference? And with the way referees let more go at the end of games (though they staunchly claim that they don't), it is worth the calculated risk. Just get the freakin' ball.
Who on the Heat besides Wade is in the ball acquisition business? Marion definitely qualifies - his superior athleticism alone makes him proficient in this area. I would say Haslem is average - he gets outsized at times. James Jones is like a statue on the perimeter - I am sure Askins will be all over him to develop this part of his game. If he can add that he would be like a real "NBA player of value." Mark Blount is a little timid. A healthy Dorell Wright should be skilled in this area, but besides a brief two week starting stint early last year he has never displayed any particular toughness to get to the ball (The Dorell Wright Experience is over, right? - someone had to take a low number to complete the roster, right?).
This is not an area of particular strength for Miami, but Wade and Marion should at least make them competitive.
In other news:
A mixed conversation (that is, woman and men) in the Dos Minutos office today about Hollywood's prettiest men yielded the following results: Brad Pitt, universally considered pretty. Tom Cruise, not considered pretty. Val Kilmer, almost unnaturally pretty in Top Gun, all blond-tipped highlights and giant white teeth. Rob Lowe, early in his career - so pretty that he was like a woman. Robert Wagner - most of us were not familiar enough with his earlier work to make a judgement, and considered his nomination as a joke; however, The Captain claimed that he was amongst the dreamiest of Hollywood's hunks. In a related note, The Captain also hailed the work of comedian Fatty Arbuckle as one of the earliest masters of physical comedy.
Amongst the best ball acquisition guys in the NBA are Jason Kidd (his strongest remaining skill - aggressive as hell to any loose ball), Tim Duncan (the master of the nudge in the back, followed by the offensive putback), Anderson Varejo (a late terror on the offensive boards), and James Posey (like a 6'8" praying mantis, all deflections and rebounds in the waning moments). It is the reason Posey finished games for two NBA champions. I think Chris Paul and Dwyane Wade also deserve mention as superstars whose athletic ability and rapid thought processes serve them well in this area of the game.
The classic ball acquisition play: when down two with seconds to play Kobe Bryant threw Steve Nash to the floor on an inbounds pass in a 2006 playoff game, pinned him on his back, ripped the ball from his hands, and went down and tied the game at the buzzer. No call, overtime.
The defining principle of ball acquisition in the waning moments of a game is: get the ball first, and then worry about the referees later. Each of the guys on this list push, pull, kick, grab jerseys, trip, etc, to get the ball. If the referee calls a foul so be it - if you didn't push and the other team gets the ball, what's the difference? And with the way referees let more go at the end of games (though they staunchly claim that they don't), it is worth the calculated risk. Just get the freakin' ball.
Who on the Heat besides Wade is in the ball acquisition business? Marion definitely qualifies - his superior athleticism alone makes him proficient in this area. I would say Haslem is average - he gets outsized at times. James Jones is like a statue on the perimeter - I am sure Askins will be all over him to develop this part of his game. If he can add that he would be like a real "NBA player of value." Mark Blount is a little timid. A healthy Dorell Wright should be skilled in this area, but besides a brief two week starting stint early last year he has never displayed any particular toughness to get to the ball (The Dorell Wright Experience is over, right? - someone had to take a low number to complete the roster, right?).
This is not an area of particular strength for Miami, but Wade and Marion should at least make them competitive.
In other news:
A mixed conversation (that is, woman and men) in the Dos Minutos office today about Hollywood's prettiest men yielded the following results: Brad Pitt, universally considered pretty. Tom Cruise, not considered pretty. Val Kilmer, almost unnaturally pretty in Top Gun, all blond-tipped highlights and giant white teeth. Rob Lowe, early in his career - so pretty that he was like a woman. Robert Wagner - most of us were not familiar enough with his earlier work to make a judgement, and considered his nomination as a joke; however, The Captain claimed that he was amongst the dreamiest of Hollywood's hunks. In a related note, The Captain also hailed the work of comedian Fatty Arbuckle as one of the earliest masters of physical comedy.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
2008-09 Season Kickoff
Reasons for Optimism:
1. DWade's return to health and aggressive play in Beijing.
2. ESPN's John Hollinger's statistical analysis of Beasley and Chalmers:
-------------------
The Sure Thing: Michael Beasley, Kansas State, 19.31
Beasley's rating is the highest of any player going back to 2002, and it's the best by a pretty sizable margin. Obviously, this isn't new information -- nobody doubts this guy's talent level.
But he might be even better than people realize. His numbers were superior even to Kevin Durant's from a year ago, and Durant had everyone gaga over his performance as a college freshman.
Somehow Beasley didn't resonate quite as strongly, perhaps because of concerns over his character, but if he keeps his head on straight he's going to be insanely good.
--------------------
D.J. Augustin, Texas (14.88); Derrick Rose, Memphis (14.69); Mario Chalmers, Kansas (14.03); Jerryd Bayless, Arizona (14.03).
Surprisingly, nobody rates as a slam-dunk lottery pick, not even Derrick Rose. In fact, Rose came in only second here, partly because he had such a slow start to his freshman season before picking up steam at the end.
Is this enough reason to draft Augustin ahead of Rose? No, because the margin between them is miniscule, and even if their career PERs end up the same, Rose will have far more defensive value given his superior size.
The bigger question is whether a team can justify taking Rose ahead of Michael Beasley, whose 19.19 is the best mark by anyone in the six years for which I have data. Yes, Beasley appears to be a space cadet and that's troubling, but what these numbers say to me is that the talent disparity is simply too big. That is, unless Beasley is such a train wreck off the court that he sabotages his own career, he's probably going to have much better results than Rose. In fact, you can make a strong case that Kevin Love should rank ahead of Rose on draft boards, as well.
Here's another interesting fact: Rose rated slightly higher as a wing (15.34) than as a point guard. That seems crazy, but he has the size to play the 2 if he has to. Just humor me and store that in the recesses of your brain in case you need to access it in a few years.
Finally, it's notable that Chalmers, though widely presumed to be a fringe first-rounder, rates even with Bayless and pretty close to Rose and Augustin.
----------------------
3. New voice in the locker room.
4. Post-Shaq spirit.
5. Flexibility to make a deal using Marion's expiring contract.
Reasons for Pessimism:
1. Significant lack of depth. There are three proven NBA starters on the roster: Wade, Marion, and Haslem. There is one proven NBA role player on the roster: James Jones. If I stipulate that Beasley will instantly be a reasonably productive NBA player, that is still only five legitimate NBA players at this juncture. Can I give you Mark Blount? I think I can not give you Mark Blount.
2. Of those five, three are most ideally suited for the same power forward position.
3. Of those five, one - Mike Beasley - seems loose. Very, very loose.
4. There is not a legitimate NBA point guard on the roster. You may pray that Chalmers becomes one, someday.
5. There is no one who can defend the rim.
In other news:
Recently heard Randy, the cowboy from The Village People, on the Howard Stern Show. While for decades I have always assumed that the group was The Village People - that is, a group of people from the Village - it was clear from Randy's pronounciation that the group is actually called The Village People, as if there are other distinct entities from the Village to which you might reasonably be referring - this group here refers to the people from the Village, not to one of those other entities. A subtle distinction, but, I think, an important one.
1. DWade's return to health and aggressive play in Beijing.
2. ESPN's John Hollinger's statistical analysis of Beasley and Chalmers:
-------------------
The Sure Thing: Michael Beasley, Kansas State, 19.31
Beasley's rating is the highest of any player going back to 2002, and it's the best by a pretty sizable margin. Obviously, this isn't new information -- nobody doubts this guy's talent level.
But he might be even better than people realize. His numbers were superior even to Kevin Durant's from a year ago, and Durant had everyone gaga over his performance as a college freshman.
Somehow Beasley didn't resonate quite as strongly, perhaps because of concerns over his character, but if he keeps his head on straight he's going to be insanely good.
--------------------
D.J. Augustin, Texas (14.88); Derrick Rose, Memphis (14.69); Mario Chalmers, Kansas (14.03); Jerryd Bayless, Arizona (14.03).
Surprisingly, nobody rates as a slam-dunk lottery pick, not even Derrick Rose. In fact, Rose came in only second here, partly because he had such a slow start to his freshman season before picking up steam at the end.
Is this enough reason to draft Augustin ahead of Rose? No, because the margin between them is miniscule, and even if their career PERs end up the same, Rose will have far more defensive value given his superior size.
The bigger question is whether a team can justify taking Rose ahead of Michael Beasley, whose 19.19 is the best mark by anyone in the six years for which I have data. Yes, Beasley appears to be a space cadet and that's troubling, but what these numbers say to me is that the talent disparity is simply too big. That is, unless Beasley is such a train wreck off the court that he sabotages his own career, he's probably going to have much better results than Rose. In fact, you can make a strong case that Kevin Love should rank ahead of Rose on draft boards, as well.
Here's another interesting fact: Rose rated slightly higher as a wing (15.34) than as a point guard. That seems crazy, but he has the size to play the 2 if he has to. Just humor me and store that in the recesses of your brain in case you need to access it in a few years.
Finally, it's notable that Chalmers, though widely presumed to be a fringe first-rounder, rates even with Bayless and pretty close to Rose and Augustin.
----------------------
3. New voice in the locker room.
4. Post-Shaq spirit.
5. Flexibility to make a deal using Marion's expiring contract.
Reasons for Pessimism:
1. Significant lack of depth. There are three proven NBA starters on the roster: Wade, Marion, and Haslem. There is one proven NBA role player on the roster: James Jones. If I stipulate that Beasley will instantly be a reasonably productive NBA player, that is still only five legitimate NBA players at this juncture. Can I give you Mark Blount? I think I can not give you Mark Blount.
2. Of those five, three are most ideally suited for the same power forward position.
3. Of those five, one - Mike Beasley - seems loose. Very, very loose.
4. There is not a legitimate NBA point guard on the roster. You may pray that Chalmers becomes one, someday.
5. There is no one who can defend the rim.
In other news:
Recently heard Randy, the cowboy from The Village People, on the Howard Stern Show. While for decades I have always assumed that the group was The Village People - that is, a group of people from the Village - it was clear from Randy's pronounciation that the group is actually called The Village People, as if there are other distinct entities from the Village to which you might reasonably be referring - this group here refers to the people from the Village, not to one of those other entities. A subtle distinction, but, I think, an important one.
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