Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Heat 94 Wizards 87

6 Thoughts

1) Heros were Daequan Cook and Emcee Chalmers. Cook didn't shoot the ball particularly well (5-12) but competed hard on defense and on the boards. Chalmers did shoot the ball well, finally (5-7 for 15 points). But both young guys showed maturity by making big plays and shots at big moments to ease to a win on the road.

2) Miserable homecoming for Michael Beasley. Played only 16 minutes before getting hauled in the third quarter after a couple of blowbys, and never saw the court again. Had the energy level dialed down to approximately zero. Coach Spo said after the game that he didn't know if Beasley was nervous in his hometown, and that he wasn't mad at him, but the other guys were working well and he could never slot him back in.

3) Wade looked a little subdued on the tweaked ankle, but still mixed in 10 assists to go with 19 points, and 3 blocks, including a huge late rejection of Antawn Jamison. Always to nice to see the affection he and Caron Butler seem to have for each other after games - they shared an exciting season together in Dwyane's first and Caron's second season, and they seem to genuinely like each other. A long season is in store for Tough Juice, though. A long, long season.

4) Quite a nice cravat Gilbert Arenas was sporting on the bench. Worth mentioning that the 120 million dollar contract that he signed this past offseason, just before needing another knee procedure, looks like the death blow for the franchise for the next 4-6 years.

5) Also worth mentioning that new Heat assistant coach David Fizer resembles a young Tone Loc.

6) Shawn Marion - you know what would help the floaters? Stop shooting the floaters.

10 Game Review

Ten games in, even at 5-5, seems like a good time to review the questions we asked to begin the season and see what we have learned thus far.

First, though, a special nod and word of thanks to our most international reader, Scott, from Scotland, who spent some time in the Dos Minutos offices yesterday.

Two points about Scott's visit:

1) He is a huge American sports fan and very knowledgeable. He thinks Dos Minutos is being too pessimistic about the Heat. We think he may be wrong, but we welcome dissenting opinions of all types.

2) The Captain points out that we missed a golden opportunity to discuss with Scott Dos Minutos' second favorite Scotsman, Sean Connery, and especially his contention that it is okay to hit a woman, as long as it is with an open hand, and only in situations "where you give her the last word, and that still isn't good enough." Next time, I suppose.

On to the review and our original roster questions:

Roster Questions on the Eve of a New Season
Joel Anthony
What we know: he is a scrappy, undersized shot blocker
Question: will he ever develop enough offense to get him on the court?
10 game update: At this point, no. He has moved ahead of Mark Blount in the rotation, but still has absolutely horrific hands. His only true skill is shot blocking, but he is too limited in every other way to be of use.

Marcus Banks
What we know: he can create his own shot and score, and is a pest defensively
Question: can he be consistent enough to warrant significant minutes?
10 game update: Started the season strong, then got hurt. The development of Chris Quinn, and most significantly, Daequan Cook, have de-rotationed Banks for the moment. Considering who he he is sitting behind, the answer for now is no.

Michael Beasley
What we know: can score from the high post, wing, and at the rim, with either hand - he is a 20 point game waiting to happen
Question: can he contribute defensively and stay on the court by avoiding the foul trouble that plagues so many rookies?
10 game update: Foul trouble has not been a problem, although he has not been much of a defensive contributor, and has lost minutes lately because of this. He needs to increase his physical presence on both ends of the court - rebound stronger, and get to the line more frequently. For the most part, though, he has stayed on the court, and provided a second scoring option for the team. Good start.

Mark Blount
What we know: started two exhibition games in which he combined for one rebound, and went rebound-less in a third off the bench
Question: is he conscious?
10 game update: Is he conscious? Does Sarah Palin know what the Bush Doctrine is? Maybe, but it would be tough to prove from the evidence on the table...Blount has shot the ball approximately every time he has touched it this season. A limited contributor in other ways. Very limited.

Mario Chalmers
What we know: he is quick and can get to the rim, and is a gambler defensively
Question: can he limit his turnovers enough to be a long-term asset?
10 game update: He hasn't been bad with the turnovers, but he has struggled with his decisions. For example, he runs many pick-and-pops with Beasley - because Chalmers is very quick, the big man has to hedge on him, which leaves Beasley open for a 17 footer every time, a shot he has proven he knocks down with efficiency. But Emcee never, never spits it back to Beasley - he always goes middle looking to score, or kicks it to the other wing. Hopefully, he will learn who needs the ball where, and when. He also needs to make more shots. Defensively, he is a menace, and already plays that end at a more-than-solid NBA level. Decent start - he certainly looks like a long-term asset.

Daequan Cook
What we know: he has a beautiful looking stroke
Question: can he figure out how to get quality shots so that the beautiful stroke translates in to baskets?
10 game update: He has made threes at a 39% clip, which is solid, but is at just 37% overall which demonstrates his inability to make quality plays off the dribble - so the answer is yes and no. However, he has been a defensive surprise, showing an ability to play people in space, and to rebound with enthusiasm. He is in the process of creating an NBA future for himself.

Yakhouba Diawara
What we know: he can't shoot
Question: can he be a lockdown defender of use in spot minutes?
10 game update: Seems to have an absolute passion for two things: fouling dribblers, and launching long threes (3 per game in only 12 minutes per night). Has not demonstrated lockdown ability, or anything else. To be fair, he is supposed to be the third option at this spot behind Dorell Wright and James Jones, neither of whom has been healthy thus far.

Udonis Haslem
What we know: will start at center and though he is severely undersized he will battle opposing big guys with everything that he has
Question: how much of a toll will the beating he inevitably is going to take affect him over the course of the season?
10 game update: He is doing what he can so far: battling and knocking down 63% from the floor. We will see how he holds up over the long haul.

James Jones
What we know: out until at least midseason
Question: what kind of dresser will he be on the bench? Suits? Sweater and slacks?
10 game update: Dress shirt and slacks.

Shaun Livingston
What we know: he sees the court well, understands how to play the point guard position
Question: will he regain enough athleticism to compete in the NBA?
10 game update: So far, no. Saw limited minutes at the beginning of the season, but clearly was not quick enough. Organization is pointing towards next year as a more realistic goal for him, and he has been inactive since the first couple of games.

Jamal Magloire
What we know: before he broke his hand, he still stunk
Question: how quickly will the hand heal and allow him to come back and stink some more? Will he stink at the exact same level, or will the broken hand make him even stinkier?
10 game update: He says he is about two weeks away. He didn't specify which two weeks, though, so let's hope he means around March.

Shawn Marion
What we know: he has looked awkward offensively, but he is the Heat's best defender and rebounder
Question: will his trade value be worth more than the cap room Miami will gain by holding him and letting his contract expire at the end of the season? he will be the subject of constant rumors until the trade deadline passes
10 game update: He is so good defensively that he is a major factor in the Heat's modest successes so far this year. If Miami could trade him for a big guy who can play, they would do it in a second. Since that is unlikely, and since Chalmers and Cook have shown promise, I think it is starting look a little more likely that Marion might be here all year - no need to trade him for a smaller player. Already enough of those here.

Chris Quinn
What we know: he can make open shots, but is not athletic enough to compete in the NBA on a regular basis
Question: how much will he play? If the answer is anything more than spot minutes, that is a very bad sign for Miami
10 game update: He is playing a lot and, actually, playing well. He is essentially splitting minutes with Chalmers, and he is shooting tremendously. He also has 21 assists and 1 - one - turnover so far this year. Still, most nights the Heat are losing the point guard matchup because Chalmers doesn't play offense efficiently, and Quinn is not a strong defender.

Dwyane Wade
What we know: he was fantastic in the Olympics, fantastic in the preseason, and has regained the athleticism that he was forced to play without last year
Question: can he play 75 + games? for Miami to be at all competitive, he will have to
10 game update: The athleticism is back to a ridiculous level, and the numbers show this: 28 points on 50% from the floor, 7 assists, 5 rebounds, 2.5 steals, and a block and a half a game. Still, the question is how healthy can he stay: tweaked an ankle Sunday in Toronto, but says he will play tonight in Washington.


Dorell Wright
What we know: he is a little stiff coming back from knee surgery, and has never had a sustained stretch of success in the league - still, he is the one player on the roster who could conceivably significantly outperform expectations
Question: can he reinvent himself as a high energy/defensive stopper/ball acquisition guy? in previous seasons he has tried to play like a wing scorer - but he needs to be active in the painted area at both ends of the floor to be of value
10 game update: Not yet available, recovering from knee surgery. Daequan Cook is providing a blueprint for "how to use your athleticism to carve out a spot in the NBA while your skills are developing." If Dorell can get on this plan, he can be a contributor - he is even more physically gifted than Cook.

Erik Spoelstra
What we know: the players seem to like him
Question: can he fashion a legitimate identity and rotation for the team that allows them to be competitive most nights?
10 game update: Superb. Has figured out how team has to play to win - small and fast - and has sold them on it. The team looks well organized, and plays hard. He has created a definitive rotation. Puts guys in a position to utilize their strengths.

Season Predictions: 31-51, 11th in the East; Marion traded at deadline for two competent contributors and a #1 draft pick ; Wade plays 68 games; Beasley averages 16 and 7; Dorell Wright and Livingston are non-factors; Chalmers shows enough to possibly be the long-term answer at point guard
10 game update: I can't envision them ever winning five in a row with this roster, but they could easily lose five in a row a couple of times. That puts them right on 31 wins. Due to Cook and Chalmers' development, seems slightly more likely Marion makes it through the year, and they use his cap room in the offseason. Wade has been healthy so far. Beasley is on 16 and 6 right now. Dorell and Livingston haven't played. Chalmers has shown flashes, and defensively is already strong.

Monday, November 17, 2008

Breaking News

Now this is a shame!

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3708124

Ask Dos Minutos

Dos Minutos' favorite reader, D in Cincinnati, asks the following question:

I have a good topic of discussion for DM. You have hit on it indirectly with some breakdowns of the Heat and it is something that parallels what I have seen with the Cavs from following them.
You thought the Heat would struggle because of lack of length. Now, of course, that is their roster and nothing can be done about it. It seems as if they have been surprisingly competitive and the lack of length hasn’t hurt them that badly.
At the same time, MB even leading into the season has been talking about going with a small line up a lot this year to exploit match ups and to simply change things up. He has had line ups with both LBJ and Wally at the 4 and AV at the 5 and then three what would be considered smaller guards at the 1, 2, and 3.
This line up has done really, really well so far.
Is this coincidence? Is there a shift in paradigm in the NBA? Is this a response to lack of quality bigs in the association? Is this simply an evolution such as football that size is nice but speed and athleticism kills?
Again, the Cavs do it by choice and can go big so it isn’t exactly the same but I thought it interesting. No way in Hades would I have expected to see this from the Cavs three or four years ago. Sure, LBJ at the 4 but with some other length around him.
What say you?

Great question by D in Cincy who clearly has an absolute passion for length.

There is a significant lack of big-time power players in the NBA. As he loves to point out, Shaq is one of the last of a dying breed. Taller players now tend to have more well-rounded games: Yao, Chris Bosh, even Amare Stoudamire, who has shown an ability to make the 17 footer. Offensively, you can certainly survive without a physical post presence.

The problem is on the defensive end. While Boston didn't have a big-time post scorer last year, they had two large, long physical presences in the paint defensively in Kendrick Perkins and Kevin Garnett. In the Finals those two guys were able to take away a lot of what Gasol wanted to accomplish around the rim, and also deter drives to the basket. Furthermore, they allowed Boston to be successful on the boards.

Miami is a freak example of going small. They aren't going small with one big and four smalls - they are going small with four smalls. Udonis Haslem is an undersized power forward being used at center. Mike Beasley is undersized for a power forward, and Shawn Marion is small forward sized, with no small forward skill set. They have survived offensively because they have Dwyane Wade, and because they can space the floor with Beasley and Haslem - one of the two of them almost always has a post defender guarding him, and thus has an advantage because they can step out on the floor and make jumpers. However, defensively, there are games where they can't compete. In last night's game against Toronto, Chris Bosh could catch the ball wherever he wanted and explode to the rim. With no shot blocker, all Miami could do was foul him, or hope he missed the layup. They had similar problems against Portland. Miami is 5-5 through 10 games, but their schedule has been soft, and Wade has been ridiculous. Over the course of 82 games, they are going to get pounded by better teams because they have no way to protect the painted area defensively.

Cleveland is a different situation, as you astutely pointed out. First of all, literally, LeBron would probably be the tallest rotation player on Miami. And, he can certainly rebound and defend more than effectively at the four. And, Varejo and Ilgauskas are both big physical defensive presences in the middle. It isn't so much that this lineup is that small as it is a redeployment of their assets. LeBron is strong and should be able to defend any power forward; but, no power forward has the ability to step away from the basket and play him in space. Advantage Cavs - I love this lineup for them. Even Wally, in spot minutes at the 4, will be able to get open shots against power forward unused to defending people in space away from the basket. Yet, the Cavs still have Varejo and Ilgauskas to deter easy drives to the basket, as well as provide an offensive rebounding presence, which is an overlooked strength of Ilgauskas.

As a nod to Dos Minutos reader Plumber in New Jersey, the Nets are looking to accomplish the same thing by playing Yi at the power forward. He has shown some ability to make long jump shots - if he develops a similar ability to defend this position, he can become a huge asset for the Nets.

So, overall, D from Cincy, I agree with you wholeheartedly - going small is all the rage, but you still need to have someone on the court to defend the basket area.

Great question, feel free to write Dos Minutos any time.

Sunday, November 16, 2008

The Incomparable LDP

Caught the end of a special Thanksgiving Iron Chef tonight, just in time to see the judging featuring not one but two Dos Minutos favorites, Tiki Barber, and the incomparable Lou Diamond Phillips.

One thing was clear: Lou Diamond has an absolute passion for fine foods, and hearing himself tell stories about the meaning of Thanksgiving. LDP on one dish, a piece of lobster topped with toasted brown sugar and a light cream sauce: "This is fantastic because the initial Thanksgiving was a celebration of cultures coming together, and this dish represents that eloquently with its mixture of East and West."

Tiki Barber's opinion on the same dish: "It tastes like cereal."

Raptors 107 Heat 96

6 Thoughts

1) Completely pounded in the paint - Toronto started three guys around 7 feet tall; Miami doesn't even have a rotation player that big. Jermaine O'Neal had 18 rebounds, and Bosh hammered them for 27 points, most of them on layups and free throws.

2) Old friend Jason Kapono stuck the dagger in with three jumpers in the decisive fourth quarter run.

3) Michael Beasley played only 26 minutes. He was matched up with Bosh most of the night and it was difficult for him on both ends. Slogged his way to 13 and 6, but was not efficient.

4) Thank heavens for Tivo because Sunday afternoon games are brutal. So far Dos Minutos is 10 for 10 in complete games watched. This is a start approaching the magical '96-97 when Dos Minutos watched 77 of 82 regular season games. With Tivo now a significant factor, many feel that record is within reach.

5) Through 10 games, Chris Quinn has 21 assists and 1 turnover, and is shooting 54% from three. He has made himself into a legitimate backup NBA point guard.

6) I like the addition of O'Neal to Toronto. He is a defensive and rebounding presence, though much of his offense is gone. He will reduce the pounding on Chris Bosh over the course of the regular season. I don't think this team can win the East with Bargniani, Jamario Moon, and Anthony Parker as their primary wing players. Still, Bosh is brilliant, they are an entertaining team, and I will enjoy watching them try to do so.

Friday, November 14, 2008

Heat 97 Wizards 77

6 Thoughts

1) True, they have all been against bad rosters. But, the Heat have blown out three teams at home, twice getting ahead by as much as 29 in the third quarter. I wouldn't have guessed they would have two games where they led by 29 all year. The Heat was +19 on the boards - the Wizards are injured, and brutal; but you still can't get outrebounded by 19 by the smallest team in the league. Besides all their other problems, Caron Butler had to be hurt or sick - I have never seen him so inactive.

2) Dwyane Wade was the model of efficiency: 24 points on 10 shots in three quarters. Fourth quarter off. He's back above 50% from the floor for the year. For a guy his size, that is ridiculous. But it also shows there is a little more space out there for him this year.

3) Alonzo Mourning was a guest color commentator for a stretch in the second quarter, pimping his memoir "Resiliance." Heat color commentator Tony Fiorentino has been reading the book all year and can apply a Zo parable to almost any basketball, or life, situation. "You know what I really like about the book?," Tony told Zo tonight, "it has its own vernacular." Indeed.

4) Another game in which Mike Beasley was unguardable early, only to fade somewhat in the second half. South Beach takes its toll on a rookie.

5) Like that second year Wizard guard Nick Young. Good looking scorer. Less good looking is second year, seven foot Ukranian center Oleksiy Pecherov, who looks like a taller, gawkier, more foreign Chris Elliott. He also has the approximate offensive game of Mark Blount. As Pat Riley would say, "he has an absolute passion for shooting bad threes."

6) League notes from Friday night:

Nets win - Brook Lopez going large for 25 and 9. That's hard to believe, as much as I like his potential. My friend, Nets fan Plumber, has never been angrier at coach Lawrence Frank than he was this afternoon, which is saying something because Plumber generally hates Lawrence Frank with the passion of a thousand suns. Perhaps Frank will get some credit from Plumber for Lopez' breakout game, but I suspect not. Plumber has an absolute passion for hating Lawrence Frank.

Chauncey Billups looks odd in a Denver uniform; Allen Iverson, conversely, looks totally normal in a Pistons uniform.