Friday, December 5, 2008

Ask Dos Minutos: Wade Theory

Our favorite international Dos Minutos reader, Scott from Scotland, asks about his "Wade Theory":

Hi. Do you reckon there is any weight to the view that the fact he's using a jump shot perhaps more than before is one key to Wade's return to superstar status?

Excellent question. We are hoping you didn't ask it just to get your name in Dos Minutos again.

I think you are probably correct. I think he is shooting the long jump shot more than he has in previous years, and with greater success. The numbers wouldn't necessarily indicate much difference - if you throw out last year, when he was injured - the previous two seasons he shot 49% from the floor, and this year he right on that number. He shoots one less free throw per game than he did those years, however, and takes one more shot per game than he did in those seasons, so statistically there is some evidence of slight movement in that direction.

Factor in, though, that he doesn't have Shaq, he doesn't have Jason Williams, he doesn't have Damon Jones, or Posey, or Eddie Jones, or Kapono, or any established postup players or perimeter shooters or scorers - except, I suppose, Beasley, who is a tremendous shooter, but lacks a little savvy at this point. Watching the games, the defenses are packed in more than ever. He still gets to rim with frequency; but, what he has eliminated is a lot of his middle game, a lot of the plays where he drives past the first guy and pulls up for the 15 footer. If he drives this season, he is looking to get all the way to the rim. Otherwise, he is looking to stick the 20 footer, and occasionally stepping back and shooting a three. I think he is staying away from the middle game because his longer jumper has improved and he can save a little energy this way.

Two other thoughts:

1) It is not as if his game has taken a quantum leap upwards. This is how good he was before he got hurt - it is easy to forget. I had forgotten myself. If you watch the 2006 Finals (which you are welcome to do next time you are in town - I have all the games on my Ipod), he was playing at this level, and made innumerable huge jumpers in that series. And before getting hurt, he was equally good starting the next season.

2) Not only is he healthy right now, he is bigger and stronger than he was before the injury.

Great question, Scott, feel free to ask away any time, and we can't wait for your next appearance at Dos Minutos headquarters. I am working diligently to improve my billiards game in anticipation of your next visit, and by "working diligently to improve" I mean that I watched five minutes of the Speed Billiards Championships a few nights ago on ESPN at about 2am, where the guys have to clear the table as quickly as possible and the quickest cumulative time over several rounds wins. You don't even have to wait for the balls to stop rolling, although most guys do.

Cheers!