Ole! We are back with our season preview for the 2009-2010 version of the Heat. If they strongly resemble the 2008--2009 version of the Heat, it is because they barely changed the roster at all. They got a little chunkier by adding rotund swingman, and former Brandy husband, Quentin Richardson, and a lot more sober by sending Mike Beasley to rehab, and trading Mark Blount to Minnesota. But...that's it - everyone else is pretty much the same. Miami is loading up on salary cap space for a big all or nothing summer in 2010. They have the cap room to re-sign Dwyane Wade, whose contract expires after the season, and two more big-time players to stick with him, Beasley, Chalmers and Cook, and try to become a contender. Of course, if the season goes poorly, Wade could decide to leave, and Miami would be left with...well, pretty much nothing. High stakes. Before we get to our season predictions, we asked a couple of other characters from this little show for their predictions. Here goes:
M.Minutos:
1) We will finally find out what happened to the guitar from Delonte West's guitar case.
2) When the Cavs don’t win the championship, Shaq will blame LeBron.
3) Dos will finally turn against Pat Riley.
Dos prediction about M.Minutos' season: A lot of third quarter dozing, followed by Dos waking her up to complain that Mike Beasley is settling for jumpers instead of going to the rim again when, as I have clearly stated before, nobody can handle him off the dribble.
The Plumber:
(all Nets related - in the highly unlikely event a few New Jersey Nets fans wander into this blog)
1) Lawrence Frank will be fired this year. This clearly falls within the
category of trying to wish something into reality, but I think the team is
not going to be very good (I'll get to that). I have to believe the
Brooklyn deal is going to go through (too many people would have put
themselves too far out, and if it wasn't going through, these people would
know it. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if David Stern controls the New York
Courts, and David Stern wants this deal to go through). If the Brooklyn
deal goes through, this guy didn't lay out ½ billion dollars to watch L.
Frank coach. My only concern is that the team is so bad, winning 20 games
will seem like a great coaching job.
2) The team will win 34 games. This actually seems like a lot, until you
remember how many terrible teams there are in the league. I put them at 34
and 48, in the lottery. If Dallas blows up, that gives them 2 lottery
picks.
3) The Nets hire (perhaps as a volunteer) a Russian assistant. They got
rid of a bunch of coaches, anyway, so there's room for one on the bench. It
will be a small role, but he'll be there.
Bonus Prediction) At the end of the season (or the day L. Frank gets fired, whichever comes first), Jarvis Hayes will have played more minutes than Devin Harris. This is a perfect combination of bad luck (Harris injury) and completely incompetent coaching by Frank (Hayes's minutes preventing other players
(CDR, TWilliams, Derek Lee) from developing and further making the season a
complete waste.
Dos Prediction about Plumber's Season: What? I dozed off...something about the Nets? Just kidding. I predict The Plumber will become disproportionately annoyed at a Dos Minutos post somewhere between four and seventy times during the season. The first time probably just happened. Somewhere between three and sixty-nine more to go. Let's get'er done...
Thor:
1) I will finally be recognized for the Shot of the Century by the retirement of my jersey number in every stadium and every team globally.
2) Shaq will become increasingly incomprehensible as he replaces every second word with one prefixed with Shaq and begins to sound more and more like a baritone Smurf. In a related prediction, he will also come out with a book titled, Chicken Shaq for the Soul.
3) Andrew Bogut will kill an Australian journalist who compares him to Luke Longley for the 19th million time, even though he’s a billion times quicker and has way better touch. In the parlance of Dos, I say this with love, Luke, who is a personal friend and a generally great human being.
Dos prediction for Thor's season: I'm just surprised he knows who Shaq is, since he doesn't play Aussie rules football, or swim...
The Captain:
1) NY Giants win Super Bowl XLIV.
2) NY Knickerbockers don’t win the NBA Championship.
3) Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers get caught smoking hydroponically grown Opalocka Crippy with 2 transvestite hookers on South Beach.
Predictions 1 and 2 are speculative. Number 3 I’m sure of.
Dos Predictions on The Captain's season: May go into cardiogenic shock if the new health bill is passed with a strong public option.
Finally, a good, good friend of Dos Minutos, former University of Michigan Fab Fiver, and NBA star, Jalen Rose:
1) The team hasn't created an identity yet.
2) Having only two players signed beyond this year leaves you with 13 guys in the locker-room that understand this could be their last season with Miami. That insecurity hangs over the team.
3) The roster staying the same means they're not even in the second tier of Eastern Conference teams in my eyes.
Dos Predictions about Jalen's season: He kind of has a point, or three.
Alright, we'll do this Six Thoughts style, then finish up with our predictions for the whole league. Just to recap, last year we had Cleveland over the Lakers, so if you take out the part where Orlando beat Cleveland, and then that the Lakers won, we were right there.
Six Thoughts
1) To recap, Miami was 43-39 last year, was the fifth seed in the East, and lost in the first round in a seventh game to Atlanta. For a team almost no one projected to make the playoffs, it was a great season. Last year's goal was to at least be reasonably competitive - anything else and the chances Dwyane Wade would begin to think about leaving after this season increase. This year the goal is the same. Beasley, Chalmers, and Cook need to prove they are pieces of the puzzle, and Wade needs to be reasonably happy and commit to re-signing when the season ends. That will allow them to spend the cap room they have been hoarding for two season on two or more players, and hopefully give them one more run at championship level basketball while Dwyane Wade is still ambulatory. A disastrous season - team loses 50 games while Beasley wanders around the perimeter waiting for games to end so he can get his smoke on - and Wade leaves. That's the effective end of the franchise...at least until they sign Chris Paul out of basketball purgatory in New Orleans a year or two down the road. Let's not even think about that...
2) Bringing back the same team in the NBA almost never works. I never imagined myself saying this, but Jalen Rose is right. Players get sick of each other and the coaches, and other teams improve while you stand pat. Miami couldn't improve without eating in to their summer of 2010 cap space. Plus, any deal they could have swung would included Miami including Beasley and/or Chalmers as part of the package. Because those two guys are on rookie wage scale for a couple more years, they are disproportionately valuable because having them on the team preserves additional cap room for the summer. Miami is trying to sign Wade, and two other guys, and retain Beasley and Chalmers, and hope Toronto misses the playoffs, since Miami holds their draft pick. It is all or nothing, death or glory, George Clooney or Gerard Butler. It is high stakes - they have a plan, but it's high stakes.
3) I think spending a month in rehab over the summer was probably good for Mike Beasley and the Heat. Everyone assumed he was high anyways. On a serious note, though, we all need to deal with our issues in life - Mike has 60 million dollars riding on his next contract a couple of years from now. If someone got that through his head in the rehab center, when he's still only twenty, he is talented enough to be a tremendous NBA player. He seemed...not serious enough at times last year. He's got another chance - it will be intriguing to see what he does with it. It is easy to forget, he was 19 last year, averaged 14 points and 5.5 rebounds a game in just under 25 minutes, and shot 40% on 3's. He is also ambidextrous, and no power forward can stay in front of him off the dribble. He is super-talented.
4) Wade was incredibly healthy last year. He played 79 games, and sat out 2 on purpose at the end when the playoff spot was clinched. That is unlikely to happen again. Jermaine O'Neal is 31, but has the knees of a 51 year old. He played 68 games last year, which seems about right. They need Wade to play 75 games, and Jermaino to play 65 to make the playoffs. Wade misses more than 7 or 8 games - Jesus, I don't think they can win a game he doesn't play in, unless Beasley morphs into Oscar Robertson, or Dick Bavetta is refereeing and mistakenly thinks Miami is the Knicks. Which, at his age, is possible.
5) If the season starts turning sour, I imagine the Heat will try to go get someone to help Wade, rather than hoping he will re-sign after a dreadful season. Beasley has to play well for them to do this, because he would be the centerpiece of any package Miami can put together. Also essential: Toronto playing poorly, because Miami holds their first round draft pick this year from last year's Jermaino trade, which would also make an attractive trading chip. Most likely targets: Carlos Boozer and Amare Stoudamire.
6) Predicting health is silly, so I am going to assume Wade stays relatively healthy, and Jermaino plays around 65 or 70 games. I mean, if Cleveland loses LeBron for a long stretch, that's not going to a picnic up there, either. I think Miami's most likely scenario is: Wade plays great; Beasley scores a lot, 18 points a game, but still struggles with decision making on and off the court; Chalmers struggles mightily in his second year, and looks like a career backup; Jermaino anchors a solid defense, but struggles to finish plays inside, and settles for a lot of bad, contested turnaround jumpers; Coach Spoelstra starts going gray; Beasley, Haslem's expiring contract, and Toronto's draft pick are involved in approximately four thousand trade rumors - a week. In the end, the Heat struggle - say 35-47, miss the playoffs, and have to sweat out the Wade decision over the summer. We'll monitor that as the season goes on - it's a fluid situation - but for now let's set the odds on Wade's residence for the 2010-2011 season at: Miami - 80%; Chicago - 15%, Knicks - 5%.
Eastern Conference playoff teams, in order of finish:
Orlando
Cleveland
Boston
Atlanta
Chicago
Washington
Detroit
Philadelphia
Orlando over Chicago
Cleveland over Boston
Cleveland over Orlando
Cleveland over Lakers in the Finals - I am picking LeBon every year until he wins. Bonus pick - Delonte West leads the parade on his three wheel motorcycle...
MVP: LeBron, again
See you Wednesday night: No better way to start a season than against the New York Knickerbockers - Ole!
